GAME PICKS... NFL WEEK 3

Who I think will win and why in NFL Week 3

With each passing week, we think we learn more and more about the teams across the NFL. But do we really? Weren’t we worried about Detroit’s attack this time last week? It’s going to take a good month or so before things settle down and we have a true idea of the state of the league.

Picking games this week is clouded by some big-name quarterback injuries (Joe Burrow in Cincinnati and JJ McCarthy in Minnesota, as well as a down-to-the-wire situation for Washington’s Jayden Daniels (knee), San Francisco’s Brock Purdy (toe and shoulder) and New York’s Justin Fields (concussion). That’s what they call getting your excuses in early!

I went 11-5 in Week 2, taking my season record to 23-9 (71.9 percent success rate). Here are my picks for NFL Week 3.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (0-2) AT BUFFALO BILLS (2-0)

Even the most optimistic Miami fans surely cannot envision a scenario where the winless Dolphins march into Buffalo and down the red-hot Bills? Making a case for the Dolphins is not helped by the fact that Josh Allen has won eight of nine head-to-head meetings with Tua Tagovailoa. Miami’s QB admitted this week: “I can’t do half of what Josh Allen does.” True. Neil’s Pick… Buffalo Bills

ATLANTA FALCONS (1-1) AT CAROLINA PANTHERS (0-2)

Let’s start in the trenches. Carolina’s Bryce Young has been pressured 37 times in two games – most in the NFL. And the Falcons, fresh off a six-sack display against Minnesota – lead the league with a QB pressure rate of 46.3 percent. Leonard Floyd and rookies Jalon Walker and James Pearce could have a field day against Young, who leads the NFL with five giveaways. Neil’s Pick… Atlanta Falcons

GREEN BAY PACKERS (2-0) AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (0-2)

This should be a simple pick and yet I worry this might be a trap game for the Packers, who should have more than enough to take care of business in Ohio. My thought process is that one of these days, the Browns are going to stop with all their self-inflicted wounds. But I’m not sure that is this week. Green Bay’s offense is good, their defense has been excellent. Neil’s Pick… Green Bay Packers

HOUSTON TEXANS (0-2) AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (1-1)

CJ Stroud looks off the pace right now and this Houston attack is really struggling. They have averaged 14 points (worst in the NFL) and 265.5 yards (28th in NFL) per game. But their defense does keep them in games and they have won 12 of the past 14 against the Jags. I really want Trevor Lawrence and Liam Coen to succeed, but I don’t trust this team just yet. Neil’s Pick… Houston Texans

CINCINNATI BENGALS (2-0) AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS (1-1)

Tough one to call because Joe Burrow vs. JJ McCarthy has morphed into Jake Browning against Carson Wentz. It will be fascinating to see if Kevin O’Connell can positively impact another veteran cast-off in the same way he did with Sam Darnold in 2024. The Vikings are banged-up across their roster, but I think homefield advantage can help them sneak this one. Neil’s Pick… Minnesota Vikings

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (1-1) AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (1-1)

The Steelers have conceded 63 points in two games and that is very uncharacteristic of a Mike Tomlin team. Aaron Rodgers and the offense will have their moments – most likely through the air - and I think it will be enough for a narrow road win under a team still finding its feet. The Pats were poor in Week 1 but much better in Week 2 as Drake Maye shone. Neil’s Pick… Pittsburgh Steelers

GAME OF THE WEEK… PRESENTED BY HICKORY’S

LOS ANGELES RAMS (2-0) AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (2-0)

Neil’s Pick… Los Angeles Rams

NEW YORK JETS (0-2) AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (2-0)

Are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the Liverpool of the NFL? They’re certainly leaving it late with dramatic touchdowns with 59 and six seconds remaining to beat Atlanta and Houston. Baker Mayfield comes alive when games are on the line. The other 10 players in the huddle must be filled with belief every time he looks around at them. That’s a special quality to have. Neil’s Pick… Tampa Bay Buccaneers

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (2-0) AT TENNESSEE TITANS (0-2)

My preseason Bingo card did not have a square on it that read: ‘The Indianapolis Colts will be the first team in the Super Bowl era not to punt through the first two games of a season.’ Daniel Jones has looked rock solid at quarterback and the weapons around him are producing. Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL with 236 rushing yards and 313 scrimmage yards. Neil’s Pick… Indianapolis Colts

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (1-1) AT WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (1-1)

The Commanders have not announced their quarterback for this game yet and there is quite the drop from Jayden Daniels to Marcus Mariota. That said, I think Washington have enough to take this contest either way. The Raiders are still trying to find themselves and Geno Smith’s cause is not helped now that tight end Brock Bowers is battling through a knee injury. Neil’s Pick… Washington Commanders

DENVER BRONCOS (1-1) AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (2-0)

The Broncos are going to be a competitive team this season but, for the second year in a row, QB Bo Nix has come out of the gate slow. And that could spell trouble against a Chargers defense that has been outstanding. Denver also has a good D, albeit one that got exposed last week. Here comes Justin Herbert, looking to give LA their first 3-0 start since 2002. Neil’s Pick… Los Angeles Chargers

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (0-2) AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (1-1)

The most surprising thing about a young Saints team in rebuild mode is that they haven’t been blown out in the first two weeks of the year. This could be a game that gets away from them against a Mike MacDonald defense playing well. Spencer Rattler’s search for a first career NFL win is going to have to wait (he is 0-8). This should be comfortable for the Hawks. Neil’s Pick… Seattle Seahawks

DALLAS COWBOYS (1-1) AT CHICAGO BEARS (0-2)

The Bears look pretty good when running their first 10 or 15 plays, which are pre-planned and scripted during the week. After that, things have gone sideways. Neither defense has shown they can stop the opposition so far, so this could be high-scoring. While I should lean Dak Prescott and Dallas, I have a sneaky feeling this is where the Bears pick up their first victory. Neil’s Pick… Chicago Bears

ARIZONA CARDINALS (2-0) AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (2-0)

The 49ers have a growing injury list. Brock Purdy remains a doubt, but Mac Jones threw three TD passes and had a QB rating of 113.1 last week. Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are out and Jauan Jennings is questionable. San Francisco still has Christian McCaffrey, who ranks fourth in the NFL with 249 scrimmage yards. Arizona has yet to break 300 yards of offense in a game, despite being 2-0. Neil’s Pick… San Francisco 49ers

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (0-2) AT NEW YORK GIANTS (0-2)

I’m not sure the offensive explosion we saw last week from the New York Giants is going to be a week-to-week thing. And I know for a fact it will be much tougher for Russell Wilson to shred Steve Spagnuolo’s Chiefs defense. I think Kansas City will win this game quite comfortably but, big picture, they have to do so in impressive fashion; not in a slug-fest. Neil’s Pick… Kansas City Chiefs

DETROIT LIONS (1-1) AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (1-1)

What a game! This was my Super Bowl pick and both Week 1 losers found their footing in Week 2. The Lions scored 52 points against Chicago and Baltimore put 41 on the Browns. Detroit have often struggled against mobile quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson, including the last time these teams met in 2023. Add Derrick Henry to the mix and I like the Ravens. Neil’s Pick… Baltimore Ravens

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Still to come this week… Friday’s Ask Me Anything Mailbag and I will also share some of my commentary notes over the weekend. Monday will see my Quick Takes reaction column to Week 3 in the NFL and on Wednesday we will go inside the game with a stand-alone feature or a big-name interview.

I hope you can give everything I’m writing on this blog a chance this season. If not, I still appreciate your support and hope you enjoy these picks for free every week all the way up to Super Bowl 60.